Welcome to Scientific Draw Odds.

Every year, I spend a lot of time thinking about my big game draws. Often, this involves making my own model. Given that I’ve been doing most of the work anyway, I decided to publish my results (for free). To use my website, select a state, input your residency/points information, and load the spreadsheet. I also include a document with my advice for each state, as well as a methodology document.

Every state has its own model, but they share two basic steps. First, I begin with a deterministic model of how the draw works. This maps parameters like number of applicants to draw probabilities (nothing is “estimated” here). Even in states like New Mexico (no “points”), draw complexities such as the allocations between residents and non-residents can make this surprisingly challenging.

Second, I try to estimate the unknown parameters from the first step (usually number of applicants and loyalty points). To my knowledge, I publish the only model that predicts number of applicants with data from other states. 2024 Montana predicts 2025 Montana pretty well, but 2024 Montana and 2025 Idaho predict 2025 Montana even better.

I think what I publish is the best on the market. I explain exactly how each draw works, describe how my estimates are built, and publish how my past predictions did, so please let me know if you have quibbles with my approach.

Best of luck in your draws, as long as you’re not applying for my units!

Conor McKinley
November 2026